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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The suspense of interest rate cuts has been resolved, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 5". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.05%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.17%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.36%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.52%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.07%, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.28%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.39%.
⑴ Only six weeks after the October interest rate cut, the Fed will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. ⑵ Powell bluntly stated that there were "big differences" internally and said "it is not a done deal", which brought the early confidence back to its original state. US stocks and the US dollar fluctuated simultaneously in an instant, and traders were forced to reduce leverage back to neutral. ⑶The November CPI will be released next Wednesday. This is the first xmxmxm.cnplete inflation answer after the government reopened its doors in October. If the core month-on-month rate is higher than 0.3%, the probability of interest rate cuts may be halved again, otherwise it will return to more than 90%. ⑷The non-farm payrolls for October and November were scheduled to be released after the Federal Reserve meeting. Policy makers could only rely on the incomplete employment puzzle, and the policy window was forced to fly blindly. Volatile funds pushed option bets to year-end highs in advance. ⑸ If both inflation and retail sales exceed expectations, keeping the policy unchanged in December will trigger a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields. The rebound in U.S. dollar borrowing costs may quickly bring the financial conditions index back to the tightest this year. Risk assets may receive year-end bonuses.Evaporates instantly.
⑴The November minutes show that the central bank predicts that the inflation outlook will become better in the next few quarters, and the slowdown in wage growth is expected to curb demand pressure. Energy price fluctuations have become the only big variable, and the market has interpreted it as a dovish signal. ⑵ However, the xmxmxm.cnmittee unanimously reminded that the deficit in fiscal year 2026 will remain high, fiscal expansion will offset the effect of monetary easing, the space for interest rate cuts is locked by the "budget red line", and short-term interest rates may remain at current levels. ⑶ The central bank emphasized that subsequent decisions will "depend on the data". If wages rebound early next year or the government increases subsidies, the inflation path may be derailed again. The zloty has given up its gains against the US dollar in the short term, and the market is betting that there will be no action until February.
⑴The Swiss federal government passed the draft negotiation draft of the trade agreement with the United States on Friday. The next step will be sent to the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs xmxmxm.cnmittee and 26 states for hearings, paving the way for formal negotiations early next year. ⑵ According to the framework agreement last month, the United States has promised to reduce the average tariff on Swiss imports from 39% to 15%, and attract Swiss xmxmxm.cnpanies to invest US$200 billion in the United States by the end of 2028; Bern is willing to further reduce its own tariffs on the premise of "reciprocity" in order to lock in temporary preferential treatment into a legally binding treaty. ⑶ If the negotiations are successful, Switzerland's pillar industries such as watches, precision machinery, and pharmaceuticals will directly benefit. The United States may gain access to more agricultural products and financial services. After the agreement is reached, the bilateral annual trade volume is expected to expand by another 8%-10%.
On December 5, local time, the Ukrainian State Electric Power xmxmxm.cnpany issued an emergency notice stating that the Russian army launched an attack on energy infrastructure in Ukraine in the early morning of that day, causing serious damage to key equipment and causing power supply interruption in many areas. The report stated that at present, some regions such as Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovograd regions have officially entered a state of emergency power outage, and the power department is fully engaged in emergency repair work.
⑴ Industry sources and agency estimates show that crude oil exports from Russia’s western ports (Primorsk, Ust-luga, and Novorossiysk) are expected to rise to 2.44 million barrels per day in December, a 27% increase from November’s 1.92 million barrels per day, a three-month high. ⑵ In November, due to bad weather and two drone attacks on the 14th and 24th, the Novorossiysk oil depot and terminal were damaged. About 700,000 tons of cargo were rolled over to December for shipment, becoming the main "reservoir" for this month's increase; the port's load may rebound to 900,000 barrels per day, close to the level before the attacks. ⑶ The three major ports in the west were operating at full capacity from September to October, with an export volume of about 2.4 million barrels per day. Currently, Russian crude oil onshore inventories are high. If external attacks weaken, there will still be incentives to maintain high flows before the traditional off-season in January, which will put marginal pressure on the spot Brent discount.
⑴Economic Minister Minoru Kiuchi fired five bombs in a row on Friday, first saying that the new round of fiscal stimulus will have a "limited impact" on prices, and then emphasizing that the stock, currency, and bond markets need to "stablely reflect fundamentals." This was interpreted by the market as the government's attempt to cool down this week's restless bond market. ⑵ Faced with a 91% probability of betting on an interest rate hike in December, Kiuchi made it clear that "the specific monetary policy measures are determined by the Bank of Japan." The government does not overstep its authority. It only hopes that the central bank and the cabinet will jointly maintain the 2% inflation target in accordance with a joint agreement, implying that the fiscal mouth will not obstruct the interest rate increase. ⑶ Kiuchi also warned that "we will pay attention to market trends with a high sense of urgency." After the remarks, the yen narrowed to 154.5 against the U.S. dollar in the short term, and the 10-year bond yield remained high and fluctuated at 1.95%. Investors focused on whether next week's central bank meeting will take advantage of the trend to kick off the "delisting" curtain.
⑴ISTAT on Friday cut its 2025 growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.6% in June, which is the same as the Ministry of Finance's October target, confirming that 0.8% will remain unchanged in 2026. It has been at the bottom of the euro zone for two consecutive years, and the dividends from the epidemic rebound have been xmxmxm.cnpletely exhausted. ⑵ GDP in the third quarter after seasonally adjustment only increased by 0.1% from the previous quarter, and contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter. The technical "quasi-stagnation" has lasted for half a year. Weak domestic demand coupled with export price disadvantages has brought Italy back to the "European pig" slow lane. ⑶ Although the employment rate hit a record high of 62.7% in October, ISTAT still raised the average unemployment rate for this year and next to 6.2% and 6.1%, higher than the previous 5.8%. The increase in jobs cannot keep up with the return of the labor force, and weak growth cannot absorb the additional labor force. ⑷The Bureau of Statistics admitted that the economy is "running on low power". If energy prices surge again in 2026 or the pace of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank slows down, the preset growth rate of 0.8% will face the risk of further downward revisions, and the public debt rate may continue to hover at a high level.
⑴ In the spot market on Friday, the benchmark prices of Oman, Dubai, and Murban rose slightly, with a weekly increase of less than 0.1 US dollars, and the market remained sideways; Saudi Arabia started the Asian share war in January ahead of schedule, and lowered the official selling price of Arabian Light oil to only a premium of 0.60 US dollars to the average price of Oman/Dubai, the lowest since 2020. ⑵Traders said that Indian national refiners IOC and BPCL have taken advantage of the deep discount window of Russian oil to enter the market. Urals for January shipment is at a discount of 6-7 US dollars to Brent spot, and non-sanctioned supply is increasing; IOC simultaneously bought 2 million barrels of Murban, and the arbitrage price was locked in both directions. ⑶Singapore’s cash premium in Dubai rose slightly to 78 cents xmxmxm.cnpared to the swap, with intensive transactions concentrated at 63.86-63.90 US dollars per barrel. Most sales went to Trafigura and Glencore. The spot premium was still difficult to offset the weakness in the far month. The market is betting that other Middle East oil-producing countries will follow up after Saudi Arabia’s price increase.
⑴ Official data on Friday showed that industrial orders in October unexpectedly increased by 1.5% month-on-month, far exceeding market expectations of 0.4%. However, they were dominated by the explosive jump of 87.1% in the "other transportation equipment" sector. After excluding large orders, core orders only rose slightly by 0.5%, and the success of the rebound is doubtful. ⑵ Domestic demand orders surged by 9.9%, the largest single-month increase in the year. Economists at the Bank of Baden-Württemberg pointed out that the "investment accelerator" depreciation discount launched in June and the 500 billion euro special fund for infrastructure have begun to be implemented. Coupled with additional defense expenditures, short-term boosts will be difficult to transform into long-term recovery. ⑶ External demand orders fell by 4.0%, and the three-month rolling xmxmxm.cnparison still fell by 0.5%. xmxmxm.cners Bank asserted that "it is just stopping the decline and not rebounding." Under the double pressure of global trade fragmentation and high energy costs, the German industry is still at the bottom of the L-shape, and it is difficult for production indicators to reach a V-shaped turning point at the end of the year.
⑴ In late trading on Friday, the 30-year German bond yield rose another 1.5 basis points, and surged 7.4 basis points in a week, the largest weekly increase since mid-August. It dragged the "long tail" of the global bond sell-off toward Europe, and the steepening of the curve was clear at a glance. ⑵ Mertz's ruling coalition faced a "316-vote life-and-death line" on the pension bill on Friday. The youth wing of the party openly defected. The market is worried that Mertz will be forced to bow to the opposition. Fiscal discipline is expected to be loosened, and the super-long-term side will take the lead in attacking. ⑶The 10-year German bond yield rose to 2.78%, close to the high in early September, and the interest rate differential with Italian bonds was only 69.8 basis points. It had shrunk to 67 basis points on Thursday, the narrowest in 16 years. If Germany's rating is downgraded by S&P, the interest rate differential may reverse instantly. ⑷Japanese bonds are the first to flip the table this week - the 30-year Japanese bond yield has hit a record high, driving the global long-term trend to rise simultaneously. After the closing of European stocks, traders waited with bated breath for the US core PCE. Once the 0.2% month-on-month increase is revised, the 30-year German debt may go straight to the 3% psychological mark.
⑴The Bank of England launched the second round of system exploration scenario drills on Thursday, naming 18 private equity giants such as Apollo, Blackstone, and CVCCredit. In total, they have taken over one-third of UK leveraged buyouts and half of global private equity credit in the past three years, involving 40% of employment in PE-sponsored xmxmxm.cnpanies. ⑵ The exercise is divided into two rounds, ending in 2026 and releasing the list in early 2027. The focus is on how high leverage, low transparency, and lightly regulated funds can be transferred to British entities under the scenario of "broken private equity ecological chain", rather than whether a single institution can survive. ⑶Official data shows that PE-backed xmxmxm.cnpanies account for 15% of the debt of British xmxmxm.cnpanies, 10% of private enterprise employment, and more than two million jobs. In September, the serial explosions of FirstBrands and Tricolor in the United States brought regulatory concerns from behind the scenes to the forefront. ⑷The central bank emphasized that this time it is not a "passing line", but the results will reversely draw a map of system vulnerability. If private credit loans are withdrawn simultaneously under stress scenarios, the spread between high-yield bonds and leveraged loans may surge instantly. The UKCorporate refinancing costs will be repriced.
⑴ In late trading in Tokyo on Friday, the 10-year Japanese bond yield rose another 1.5 basis points to 1.95%, setting a new high since 2007. The main futures fell below the 134 mark to close at 133.94. The short sellers refused to cover over the weekend, and the market bet that "2% will break within the year." ⑵ Large corporate investors were seen bargain hunting in early trading. Futures only rebounded for 9 minutes before being overwhelmed by short-term selling pressure. The 2-year yield rose 3 basis points simultaneously to 1.05%. The curve was slightly flattened, indicating that investors no longer locked in the long-term and only fled to the front-end. ⑶ The media cited an agency survey saying that "the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has soared to 91%." Coupled with the news that the White House urged Japan and South Korea to increase defense spending, the dual stimulus caused heavy volume declines in the last 45 minutes, with trading volume approaching 24,000 lots, a three-month peak. ⑷The minutes of the November 27 meeting released by the Ministry of Finance showed that most primary dealers "cannot buy if they want to buy", floating book losses lock up funds, and the position of the neutral interest rate is unclear. The wait-and-see market dominates, and the selling pressure may be difficult to reverse in the short term.
EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1645, an increase of 0.00%. In the New York pre-market, the price of (EUR/USD) was trading at the levels of its last trading day as it tried to gain bullish momentum that might help it recover and rise again, a bullish correction trend prevailed on a short-term basis and it was trading along the supporting trend line of the trend and there was negative pressure as it was trading above the EMA50, in addition to positive divergence on the relative strength indicator, after reaching exaggerated oversold levels xmxmxm.cnpared to the price action, positive signals emerged from there.
GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3341, an increase of 0.11%. Pre-market, GBPUSD closed lower in final intra-day trading as the 1.3350 resistance held steady, consolidating gains from its previous advance and trying to gain bullish momentum that could help it bounce back and break above this resistance, while also benefiting from its Trading above the EMA50 and a bullish corrective trend prevailing in the short term and trading along the supporting trend line of that trend, xmxmxm.cnbined with the RSI reaching oversold levels, is exaggerated relative to the price action, indicating that bearish momentum may be fading quickly.
Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen, now trading at 4227.53, an increase of 0.45%. Before the New York market opened, (gold) prices rose on the last trading day,Preparing to attack the key resistance at $4,245, supported by its continued trading above the EMA50, the relative strength indicator is showing positive signs, dominated by the short-term major bullish trend and trading along the trendline.
Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 57.996, an increase of 1.54%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices settled with strong gains in the last intraday session, preparing to reach the key resistance of $58.80, while a slight bullish trend on a short-term basis supports the situation. Furthermore, despite reaching overbought levels, there is continued negative pressure as it trades above the EMA50, in addition to the emergence of the relative strength indicator.
Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now trading at 59.600, a decrease of 0.12%. In the New York pre-market, (crude oil) prices have been trading choppy in the last trading session, with the relative strength indicator showing negative signals, positive pressure persisting as it trades above the EMA50, and in the short term trading along the bullish trend line, trying to gain bullish momentum, which may help it recover and rise again.
Citigroup predicts that the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the euro will rise to 1 euro to 1.10 U.S. dollars in 2026, because it is expected that the U.S. dollar will benefit from the re-acceleration of U.S. economic growth, and the Fed's interest rate cuts will be less than market expectations. Citigroup expects the euro to fall as low as 1.10 against the dollar in the third quarter of 2026, down nearly 6% from the current level of 1.1650. Citigroup and Credit Agricole both forecast that the exchange rate will drop to 1.10; in a survey of foreign exchange strategists, the two institutions had the most pessimistic forecasts for the euro-dollar exchange rate. A team of foreign exchange strategists led by Daniel Tobon wrote in a report, "We hold constructive expectations for the US dollar in 2026, mainly due to expectations for a recovery in U.S. economic growth, especially as the November midterm elections approach. Economic growth is not driven by a single dominant factor, but a xmxmxm.cnbination of multiple factors may bring about a more positive outlook, which will make it difficult for the market to further dovish pricing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts." "Ultimately, we think the core question is: Can a dovish chairman truly influence the policymaking xmxmxm.cnmittee when the Supreme Court has guaranteed the Fed's independence? We think not," they added; Citi expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 75% by the end of 2026basis points.
For the euro, the agency expects the European Central Bank to have reached its terminal interest rate and will keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2027, which will limit the euro's sharp fluctuations; increased defense spending may support the euro, but Citigroup expects this factor to become a driving force later in 2026. Citigroup expects GBP/USD to fall to 1.22 in the next 6-12 months, down nearly 9% from the current level of 1.3350; this is the most bearish GBP forecast in a Bloomberg survey. "We expect sterling to underperform in the medium term as a more pessimistic narrative unfolds," the strategists noted, based on rising political uncertainty in the UK - local elections in May may heighten the risk of a potential leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer; an acceleration of the UK interest rate cut cycle; and the re-emergence of term premium risks.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: xmxmxm.cning back from the suspense of interest rate cuts, short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on December 5". It was carefully xmxmxm.cnpiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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